by Steve Sternberg

I repeatedly said that I didn’t think Conan O’Brien and FOX were a good fit, and I don’t really understand why so many seemed surprised he didn’t wind up there.

The recent late night rumblings have highlighted differences between what might be good for the network, and what might be good for its affiliates.  Leno was performing almost exactly how I  predicted at 10pm (actually slightly better than NBC projected).  And, in fact, NBC was reasonably satisfied.  The show was saving them lots of money, it was profitable, and advertisers did not give them as hard a time as they probably expected.

But they were blindsided by the reaction of their local affiliates, whose lucrative 11pm newscasts were being hurt by the weaker lead in.  I also find it hard to believe that Conan wasn’t making money, since he was also doing pretty much as expected, and I would assume after last year’s upfront, NBC would have known exactly how much revenue he would bring in.

The FOX network might have been happy to have Conan, but not the affiliates, who probably remember other failed attempts by FOX to have a late night star, and who couldn’t see how this would benefit them more than the syndicated fare they currently air.  Because of these syndicated deals, Conan would have had to start out with maybe 60-70% coverage – not the best way to build an audience base.

A lot of people seem surprised that Conan would opt for basic cable, and I’ve had a number of inquiries from the press asking if I thought this was some kind of first step toward cable being at parity with broadcast.

My response?  Well, cable has been at more than parity with broadcast in late night for years now.  At least with viewers, if not the press.  Five years ago, Conan’s audience was young.  But it has aged dramatically over the past five years.  During the 2004/05 season, the average Conan viewer was 41.  This rose to 48 during the 2008/09 season (his last at 12:35).  At 11:35, his median age was 47.  Hardly young – unless you compare him to Leno (56) and Letterman (54).

If we look at cable late-night median ages for the same season, we see TBS and FX at 34, BET at 32, Comedy Central at 31, Nick-At-Nite at 26, and Adult Swim at 21.

Can Conan get younger again on TBS.  Well, let’s see.  Following The Office, House of Payne, or Family Guy instead of local news or Jay Leno.  Airing right before George Lopez (median age of 34).  I’d say he will skew significantly younger than he did on NBC or would have on FOX.  If his ratings are close to what he generated at NBC (quite possible) he’ll be a star at TBS.

This is a real coup for Turner, and a potentially very successful extension of the TBS comedy brand.

A 1996 and 2007 recipient of Ad Age’s Media Maven award, Steve Sternberg has more than 20 years of experience analyzing and reporting on television and programming and video viewing trends for major advertising/media agencies. Read more from Steve at The Sternberg Report.